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Dear Readers,
Thank you for coming here!
Time flies! We are half-way through 2023.
Here is the snapshot of our Total Net-Worth for Jun 2023.
Net-Worth increase from last month: 15K SGD, +0.72KG Gold
Kept losing money in stock market — start losing patience with my shitty portfolio.
Gold increase enlarged by price drop.
Investment: -6.82% annualized return, incl. dividend
Still in deep RED.
Slight improvement from last month mainly due to capital injection.
Till next time!
Your annualised loss is not very big. ie below 10%.. so if you dump into Tbills etc, you can already recover the full amount. Not sure how you calculate the annualised loss eg if it across a few years.. then maybe it is a bigger amount. Maybe share your portfolio and then we can chip in to offer some corrections ? no one starts with a know it all in finance.
ReplyDeleteMain idea is not to give up. It is a journey.
DeleteThank you!!! I really appreciate your offer to help. I think that is what I need now. Below is my portfolio:
Delete- Smoore Intl - Tabacco
- Tencent - Tech
- Anhui Conch Cement - Building material
- RLX - Tabacco
- Yala - Tech
- SMIC - Semiconductor
- DADA - Tech
- Root - Insurance
- Uipath - Tech
- BEKE - Tech
- JD - Tech
- Meituan - Tech
- Peraso - Semiconductor
- AHT - REITS
- IVR - REITS
- FARMMI - Agriculture
- VIVANI Medical
Regarding the loss, I used the compounded formula backwards, just like when the return is positive. It is definitely a much bigger number if we just look at the diff btw investment and current market value.
DeleteHi, . Sorry for the slow reply. just saw your portfolio.
Please note these are my personal view so do your own due diligence. And we are all learning in this journey.
Observations :
1. Your portfolio has strong concentrations in geographical and industry. Eg : You have a large geographical concentration in china/ hk stocks that is not aligned to your place of stay ie SG. This poses some dislocation risk and you may want to think about how you are managing this . Eg can you get a sense of the localised sentiment directly without reading “published” news. Cos all published news will be priced into the market prices if it is significant enough.
You have also a large tech heavy industry stock portfolio.
Based on these concentrations , it will be useful to think about these questions :
• Do you have insight or better knowledge of these concentration play eg tech sector or China/HK than the average investor ?
• What are your key motivation for getting into these concentration.
• Have you defined clear exit and entry levels for these concentrated play. Eg see a crash or gain which you view it is unjustified and you are certain that average investor will have mispriced this risk.
If you don’t, then you may wish to re-evaluate how to rebalance. Consider tapping on your in-house knowledge to think about the companies that you should be investing. Eg, you may know that say xxx industry is now doing have major boom that will last say 2 years. Do a research on the companies in that industry and find out which are the key players. And once you have identified an opportunity , think about which stock can be divested for you to reinvest in this opportunity. As part of identification of an opportunity, it will be good to also consider the above 3 points I have listed above especially the clear exit and entry levels.
2. I sense you tend to favour new and up & coming companies as opposed to established players in the industries ? And if so, do you have any reason for this “bet” ?
Most investors think that an upcoming company will have better returns. Hence they tend to undervalue that building a well run organisation is very much more difficult that building a good product. And smart competitors do not let a good product get monopolised. Look at the recent AI. Look at how many companies are now chasing this AI dream furiously. And a lot of these established players have one thing that new companies sorely lack. Ie Funding.
I am not saying not to bet on new up and coming companies, but it may be good to hedge the bets if the view is more on the “disruptive” technology as opposed to the companies. Especially if the incumbert player has a large funding pool. That new incumbert can have 1 killer product but it will have to prove continued success to beat the incumbent.. And that may not be easy to determine especially if the incumbent has a lot of funding . Do note, strong well funded competitors use a lot of lawyers to kill competition.
3. In specific to tech industry – do you have a good view to all tech industry or very specialised insight to a specific industry tech sector. Eg , can you clearly list the top 3 competitors for these companies that you have chosen ? Do you know if your stock play in these tech companies is for 1 /2/3 year or just half year ? (I don’t see you changing your portfolio regularly and you may also want to think if that is a good strategy for tech stock vs tech indexes) . I tend to favour doing aggressive cut and take profit for individualised tech stocks but am ok to holding index if you have a LT +ve outlook. But that is my view. It may not work for you and you can be right if you have your own reasons.
Thank you!! That is really a very helpful set of questions. Unfortunately, my answer to most of these questions is that I do not know enough, which kind of makes me deserve all the losses. I should not have bought those stocks in the first place.
DeleteHowever, now I have a direction to move to. I will keep going.
I cannot thank you enough for this!
Hey - no problem. If you dont have strong views for individual stocks, then the view is to really buy index. Some in SG are advocating S&P500 etc. I think that is generally a good strategy for starting out before moving to specific stock. I will also suggest maybe timing the strategy a bit or doing small investments until you view that the time has come to move in much more. i think you have proven to have holding power cos you stayed with these stocks so holding to index like S&P500 should be a good bet if you can hold at least 10 years.
DeleteYes, I am re-starting DCA into IWDA, while exiting the individual stocks. This time, will stick to the strategy :)
DeleteHi, when DCAing to IWDA, keep a proportion as spare cash in Tbills. say 50% into warchest, 50% into IWDA . When the tide turns ie when the prices crash, that is when to push out the warchest. Let the warchest grow . You need a large cash hoard to come in. Prices sure got drop in the next 10 years. Just be prepared to get into the market when it comes
DeleteNice strategy! Instead of all in, keep growing warchest as well! Will do. Thank you a ton!!
DeleteHi C Game and others,
DeleteThank you again for all your valuable advices above.
I am thinking of exiting my current portfolio of individual stocks. I do not know enough about them and have no interest in research them either. They all have heavy losses, 40-98%.
My plan is to clear them all at once and invest the money to world index.
Based on your experiences, is clearing all at once a good ideal? Are there any considerations I should take before executing?
Thank you very much!