Thursday, September 30, 2021

Quick Update

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Dear readers,

Thank you for coming here!


Here is another quite update post.

1.The work

I have started an additional commitment this week and it has quickly proven to be a bit overwhelming.

Partly it is because I have been idle for too long.

Maybe partly also because it has just started and I have not got my head around it.

But I clearly feel the stress, to the point I feel very tired at end of the day, even though not much has been accomplished.

But I believe I can adapt.

And once I do, I know the stress will ease and productivity will go up.

I hope that day comes sooner.

So for our own sake, do not allow ourselves to stay idle. 

It is hard to pick up the speed once we lose it. 

Photo by Glenn Carstens-Peters on Unsplash

2.The blog

The stress has got me struggling what to write for this entry.

I thought of two options:

  • A “Minor Update” to let you guys know that I have this overwhelming commitment and my updates might be a bit behand in the next one or two months.
  • A “Quick Update”

The first option would mean a heads-up that the cadence below, which I have been following for this year, might be broken.

I have stuck to three posts a week, on afternoons/evenings of Sundays, Tuesdays and Thursdays, so that you can read them on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.

The second option would allow me to complete this entry fast and at the same time, would not grant me excuse to break the cadence just yet.

I decided to go with the second option. 

After all, the building of a cadence is not easy. I should not just give it up so easily.

And I believe writing is good for me, even for the current commitment and the bigger thing that is coming.

And I believe I can still manage for now.

And most importantly, I do not want to disappoint and lose you!

So regular update it is!

Photo by Ameer Basheer on Unsplash

3. The award

My wife got a promotion and three salary increments this year.

It seems a lot, but really depends how you look at it.

She has not changed job for the past 10+ years and her salary has not been much higher than a fresh graduate.

She started work with a higher salary than I did, but she has been making far less over the years.

So this is like her company making it up to her.

But of course, her current manager (Female) is very supportive and works very well with her.

Otherwise, she might still be drawing the fresh-level salaries.

But still, this is great news. 

I can see she is happy and I am really happy for her. 

I am happy for myself too because I also get to spend that money…haha

So in a way, life is fair.

We never really lose what is ours or own what is not. 

Just that it might come later.

But later is always better than never.


Till next time!

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Deep Fried More!!! Monthly Net-Worth Update — Sept 2021

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Dear Readers,

Thank you for coming here!


Deep frying season continues!

Here comes another monthly update!


Net-Worth increase from last month: -15K SGD, 0.35KG Gold

My portfolio continues to dip.

It recovered a bit during the first half of the month and tanked even more in the second half.

Salaries are not enough to make up for it.

The Gold price dropped so much that I actually had a slight increase in my net-worth, measured by Gold.

Photo by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash

Investment: -8.78% annualized return, incl. dividend

It is a new high in terms of absolute paper loss.

It is not the worst return rate we have had, but it is getting there.

Life must go on.


Till next time!

Thursday, September 23, 2021

“Cheats” — The Beginning Of The Bitter End

Photo by Carl Raw on Unsplash

Dear Readers,

Thank you for coming here!


I have always defended gaming, especially when there are some researches showing that gaming can improve reflexes etc.

But the reason is mostly because I am hooked in gaming. And also I do not observe much negative impact on me.

But recently, I realized that the most significant impact of gaming might be to inject “Cheats habit” into players’ mind.

In games, “Cheats” help us beat the game effortlessly.

And if that becomes a habit, we may transfer that kind of behavior into real life.

And things work differently in reality than in games.

Photo by Limor Zellermayer on Unsplash

And it is not only gaming that might do this to us.

In Chinese Kongfu movies/novels, it is far too common that the character falls into a cave or a lake and then discovers some superb marshal arts manual or weapons. And then he emerges as the best Kufu master, takes his revenge, gets the perfect girl and rules the world.

Here, the marshal arts manual and the weapons are the “Cheats”.

In western super hero movies/comics, people get their super power from accidents. For example, Spiderman gets it from a spider bite and Hulk from a failed experiment. And then they rely on that super power to save humanity.

Here, the accidents, the bite or radiation, are the “Cheats”.

Photo by Matt Artz on Unsplash

Certain things in real life does that to us as well.

So many “career experts” claim that the secret to career success is “Guanxi”.

So many “education experts” claim that the key to good academic results is memory techniques.

So many “corporate experts” claim that the differentiator for great enterprises is innovation.

Here, the secret, key and differentiator are the “Cheats”.

And they are probably its most tricky form because they are partly true. They just assign too much weight to the factors they would like to focus on.

“Guanxi” does help career success. There are too many success cases to prove it. But depending on it solely will surely set us up for failure.

Similarly for memory techniques to academic results and innovation to enterprises.

Photo by Kind and Curious on Unsplash

These very very attractive “Cheats” are shortcuts that do not really exist in reality.

They might seem to exist, but they do not.

Once we fall into the habit of relying on “Cheats”, that is the beginning of the bitter end.

Gradually, we convince ourselves to believe in more and more “cheats” and waste time and money on them, without any sustainable results.

A good example is my investment journey.

I changed my approach from Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) into broad indexes to buying individual stocks, just because my wife’s return surprised me. 

And then I started speculating.

All this while, I never really sat down to research a sector or company.

Even by luck, I had very good returns in the first few months, I was not able to pocket it. 

And now I am sitting at huge losses.

In comparison, to select the DCA approach to kick start my investment journey, I spent months in researching and only after that, I made the decision based on my style and sound logic.

And even if it did not bring me stellar returns, I was seldom in the Red Zone.

The misconception of reality will translate into tangible losses.

Photo by Tobias Bjerknes on Unsplash

The only way to achieving something in reality is to understand how things work and put solid efforts into it.

“Cheats” simply brings failure.


Till next time!

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Danger is a fact, but fear is a choice

Photo by Raúl Nájera on Unsplash

Dear Readers.

Thank you for coming here! 


World is full of danger, but fear is a choice.

We know the danger is real, because shit has happened so many times;

We know the fear is real, because we have been put through very difficult situations so many times.

We can be extremely conservative to avoid the danger as much as possible.

But that could be the danger itself.

One typical example is someone saying “No” to better job offers to avoid the risk in the transition and the “danger” of “cannot make it”.

However, the danger will be real when his current job goes downhill or when his growth potential disappears.

He may not be able to secure another comparable position when he needs to, because he has been in his comfortable zone for too long.

So it is “danger” no matter he takes the offer or rejects it.

Photo by Javier Allegue Barros on Unsplash

So how?

While it is a fact that the danger exists, it is a choice how we deal with the fear.

From a practical point, focusing too much on fear only paralyzes us. We have to live with it and be cautious along the way.

To do that, it is advisable to think it through before making the decision.

A good tool is the Six Thinking Hat, where we take on different “roles” and “perspectives” to assess the same issue.

That way, we are our own “Think Tank”.

While “Blue” and “White” hats typically are used in the beginning of the process, there is no restriction on the sequence of the hats and how many times we can put on each hat.

From my experience, decision typically comes to us while we have the “RED” hat on, which means we start to feel confident that this is “right” or “wrong” after round(s) of collecting facts and information, structuring thoughts, assessing positive and negative aspects and trying to come out with creative ideas to deal with problems at hand.

From Internet

However, no methodology or tool can guarantee right decisions.

So the next part is implementation and consequence management.

Photo by Sigmund on Unsplash

During implementation, it is important that we stay cautious. 

The biggest risk comes when we start to feel too confident or even arrogant after some intermediate successes.

We start to get lazy. 

We start to base our decisions on imaginations, instead of facts.

We start to think we are above certain things or people.

We start to avoid communication and feedback.

etc etc

Mistakes are almost bound to happen and they will mostly likely take us by surprise.

The result?

Serious set-backs, painful experiences and even scars. 

Their impact can last well beyond the short term.

Photo by Bradyn Trollip on Unsplash

We do our best in implementation. 

But when consequences happen, no matter the reason, we need to accept them, bear them and take the full responsibility for them.

Afterwards, we will work to improve things.

It is almost never the end game unless we accept it.

And when a door closes, a window will open.

No need to hurry. It could take some time for us to see the window.

The most important thing is to put ourselves together and set out again.

Never underestimate our own resilience. 

And by the way, this will happen a few times in life for most people.

We just cannot avoid them.

Call it fate.

Photo by the blowup on Unsplash

If we are blessed with success at the end of implementation, enjoy it and use it as our next starting point if we want to keep going (no shame in stopping if that is what we want).

Most importantly, never forget to be grateful.

Remember there are people who are equally qualified for success, but suffering from set-backs due to factors they have little control over.

If we know them, we should help them.

What comes around goes around and what goes around comes around.

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

In the end

Danger is a fact, but fear is a choice.

We have to live with fear and keep going forward.

Try to think it through before making decisions.

Try to stay cautious during implementation.

Bear the consequences and work to improve things.

When met with success, be grateful and help others.

To us all!


Till next time!


Thursday, September 16, 2021

Quick Updates - Investment, Gaming and Opportunities

Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

Dear Readers,

Thank you for coming here! 


I have been pretty occupied with work lately.

So here comes another “lazy” post.


1.Burned back and forth, up and down

My portfolio…

It hurts me to look at it.

After a week of recovery, this week it tanked again.

What’s worse, I am not really sure what to do with it.

So I will continue to be an ostrich.

Photo by Alexey Savchenko on Unsplash

2.Gaming interest fading

I have lost interest somewhat a bit in gaming.

I cannot find any exciting games to play now.

I am really waiting for Chinese Paladin 7 to come out and see how it is.

I was really impressed by the Swords of Legends 3.

Photo by Razvan Chisu on Unsplash

3.Another opportunity knocks but I am not sure about it

I am still a bit scared by the offer retraction.

That makes unsure about this one.

My life now is not super, but ok. Actually, I can make myself feel satisfied with it.

With this opportunity, better perspectives, growth and money will be available to me, and at the same time, I will be exposed to the risk of another offer retraction.

It is most likely a no-brainer for most people. For me, I need to think and evaluate hard.

Maybe some more time will tell.

I will keep you guys updated.


Till next time!

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Fighting Spirits!!

Photo by Dimon Blr on Unsplash

Dear Readers,

Thank you for coming here! 


We had a team building event last week. 

While it could be called a competition, it was a very casual one, because it quickly became clear that our performances heavily depended on the tool we got allocated.

The tools were supposed to be identically efficient. 

They were not!

So the casual competition became even more casual.

Most of us did not care about winning at all. 

The prize for winners were not attractive anyway.

Instead, we focused on interacting with our colleagues and having fun.

Photo by Chris Sabor on Unsplash

As the game went on, to our surprise, we could not help noticing how fiercely the two VPs, highest management present that day and oldest among us (50s and 60s), competed against each other.

They were observing which tools were the most efficient and demanded them to be assigned to them.

And of course, they tried everything to be as fast as possible.

In the final round, when most of us got hungry and just wanted to have a good dinner, the two VPs were still in their games, full hearted.

Of course, one of them was the champion. 

And no one could miss the excitement on his face. Clearly, he enjoyed his sense of achievement.

Photo by Austrian National Library on Unsplash

As one of the first to lose interest in the game and give up competing for winning, I could not help wondering whether I lack the fighting spirit in me.

The game surely looked boring and unfair. 

I chose to lose interest and give up.

The two VPs chose to take it as another opportunity to challenge themselves. They decided to give their best to win.

I wonder whether I have given up too many small things like this at work and in life.

Each of them could be an opportunity to improve myself or others.

Each of them could have accumulated to make a difference.

Maybe that is why they are VPs.

Maybe that is why they look and feel younger, even with their grey and white hair.

Physical ages matter less!


Till next time!

Thursday, September 9, 2021

Probably The Biggest "Unplanned" Risk For Our Retirement

From Internet

Dear Readers,

Thank you for coming here!


I published this post last week and only got 27 views for this post, which is extremely low. I think the bad title "Another Gaming Episode" ruined everything.

When I started writing this post, I really just wanted to share my first ever experience to finish "Credits" of a game and the observation on the very high development cost vs the very low retail price.

And then scale came in and then decreasing world population and the corresponding risks to retirement.

While population posts risks to all fronts, from as big as who rule the future world to what happens to our property value to as little as what happens to retail prices for games, I think the risk to retirement is probably the most relevant for us commoners.

Unlike the ruling of the world or the worthless properties or the expensive games, quality of our retirement is probably the one thing that we would care most in our last stage of life.

I think it is important that people like you and me are aware of the risk to retirement planning posted by decreasing population, even though we may not be able to really do anything here and now.

Since only 27 people viewed it, I would like to repost it with a more "scary" title and some minor adjustment to the content, just to broadcast the awareness.


I completed the game "Cyberpunk"! Yay!

Well, only the main storyline and only reached one of the endings…There are still tons of side quests left, even though I have completed so many.

I did not count, but I must have thrown in more than 100 hours easily.

Such a good way to kill time!

Overall, it is a great game and CDPR is still releasing patches and DLCs to make it better. 

Better here really means closer to what they had promised before the release.

I probably wont play the 1.3 patch any time soon. I will try something different for now.

Maybe when patch 1.7 is out, I will replay it as a female character with a female voice.

Apparently, that affects the gameplay significantly.

I tried so hard to romance Judy…

As a man, the game forbids me to do it…

From Internet

One thing I would like to share with you here is that this is my first time ever to have watched the complete Credits of a game after completing it.

As far as I can recall, the last time I watched the Credits of a game was when I completed Call of Duty 2 for the first time. 

There was an animation immediately after the game was completed, to draw players’ attention. 

It was easy for players to just watch it. It was fun also.

But once I saw the “text” coming out, I immediately pressed “ESC”.

Cyberpunk was different.

It shows the “text” and on the side, a small window appears that plays the video messages your friends in Night City send to you.

I have to say I felt quite personal and “warm”. 

And it flows extremely well with the storyline, where, in my ending, the player leaves Night City and lives “freely” for whatever time he has left.

That was more than enough to draw me in. 

But the messages only last a short while, after which the Credits go on for a much longer duration.

And a “Fast Forward” option is provided.

Such a nice touch!

I understand the names etc mean a lot to the developers, but for players to spend like half an hour to go through it would be hard.

From Internet

As I went down the list, the first thing I noticed was that so many people were involved in making the game.

The efforts and costs put in developing this still buggy game must be tremendous.

A quick google search showed USD 313 Million development cost for the game and that was until end of 2020. They have released a few patches in 2021 too. So the cost can only be significantly higher.

And the game retails for ~SGD 50. You can get cheaper on Lazada.

Such an affordable price is only possible due to scale and almost zero marginal cost.

From Internet

Scale is key and that means user base, which is a fraction of world population.

And apparently, decreasing birth rate is a big problem now.

It has been a big problem in most developed countries, Singapore included.

It is now also a big problem for developing countries, like China.

China has been worrying about the opposite for so many years with the “Birth Control” policy. The fine put my family in debt for most of my childhood.

Now they are completely turning the tide. Making babies for Money is a real possibility.

And the cities in China are “fighting” for the young generation, by rolling out all sorts of policies, from houses to “Hukou” to subsidies.

It is not exaggerating to say that the power of a nation or a city ultimately resides in its population.

From Internet

And declining and aging population could give rise to many problems.

Retail costs for games would be a relatively minor one.

Just imagine when we are all old, there is only a very limited supply of care-taking workers because there are a very limited number of people young enough to perform those duties.

The services will become so expensive that majority of old people wont be able to afford it. 

It is possible to have no one taking care of us, no medication, no counseling, no peace of mind, even no food.

And any of our existing plans for retirement, the money we save, the property we keep, the insurance we buy, could prove a joke, in front of a miserable retirement.

From Internet

Woooo….

Not sure how a gaming episode turns into the hopeless reflection of retirement lives…

But there is no need to feel so pessimistic. 

I believe problems will solve themselves.

Maybe we will detach from our bodies and live in cyber space.

That way, we are forever young.

See you outside of the Black Wall.


Till next time!

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Whatever happens is the best arrangement

Photo by Marek Piwnicki on Unsplash

Dear Readers,

Thank you for coming here!


Whatever happens is the best arrangement!

I have heard this phrase so many times. 

Very vaguely, I thought it might make sense, but definitely would be more for comforting people.

Recently, I think I might have found a way to explain it logically.

This is how balance is always restored, through frustrations.

Photo by Rupert Britton on Unsplash

1. Whatever happens is the best arrangement for individuals

If people are meant for something, frustrations provide them opportunities to get stronger. 

Frustrations also provide opportunities for others to witness their determination, commitment and improved capabilities, boosting people’s confidence in them to support them till they take their places in the circle of life.

Similarly, if people are not meant for it, frustrations provide them opportunities to realize that and pursue other things that they are meant for.

Frustrations also provide opportunities for others to witness their change of course, so that the people in the original track will stop wasting resources supporting them and the people in the new track might see their potential and start investing in them.

If there is really circle of life, then frustrations put people in their places.

And being in the wrong place is probably the most pathetic cause for certain failure.

So whatever happens is the best arrangement for individuals.

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

2. Whatever happens is the best arrangement for systems

For a system to last, it needs stability above all else.

To maintain stability, rules are created.

And whoever does not follow the rules gets punished, which is a major source of “Frustrations”.

These frustrations again put people in their places and in turn, maintain the stability of the systems.

Call it scarifying the few for the benefits of many.

So whatever happens is the best arrangement for systems.

Photo by Aaron Burden on Unsplash

Summary

We do live in harmony, where the “best arrangement” is aligned among both individuals and systems.


Till next time!

Sunday, September 5, 2021

My Market Transactions — Wk36 2021

 

Photo by Stephen Radford on Unsplash


A bit recovery on the portfolio, but still in the deep fried state.

Here are the transactions for the past week.


Capital injection: ~8K SGD

1. Tencent

A small top-up. 

I believe the current PE is low enough.

But with the experiences recently, I did not dare to add too much position. Who knows what will happen next.

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Capital outflow: None

No selling. I have buckled up for the next few years.


Till next time!